Climate Change & Nuclear Weapons Use
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Climate Change Is a Conflict Multiplier
Climate change is contributing to geopolitical conflicts around the world which increase the risk of war and the use of nuclear weapons.
Analysis of the links between possible climatic changes and international security and conflict has been developing for more than two decades, including work on the connections between conflict and stresses from population growth, water scarcity, drought, desertification, land shortages, decreased agricultural production and disruptions of marine ecosystems due to ocean warming and acidification.
“Climate change is a ‘threat-multiplier’ that may intensify existing social, economic, political and environmental problems that communities are already facing”.
Syrian Civil War
Researchers have said that an extreme drought in Syria between 2006 and 2009 was most likely due to climate change. The drought caused massive crop failures leading to the migration of 1.5 million people from rural to urban areas. The resultant social stresses were a factor in the violent uprising that began there in 2011 and eventually led to military involvement by the nuclear states of US and Russia.
Heightened Tensions Between India and Pakistan
A changing climate and growing population have put more pressure on the demand for water in the nuclear states of India and Pakistan. Both want control of Kashmir, because of access to rivers which flow from India to Pakistan. India has speeded up plans to build dams in Kashmir which would affect Pakistan’s water supply. India has also threatened to act against the Indus Water Treaty, which Pakistan would consider an act of war.
Limited Nuclear War Would Lead to Climate Disruption
New computer models have demonstrated the effects of nuclear war on world climate. A “limited” or regional nuclear war, involving 100 of India and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, bombs, less than 1 percent of the global nuclear arsenal, would kill 20 million people in the first week. But the resulting climate disruption could last up to ten years, leading to the starvation of up to 2 billion people. Firestorms would release massive amounts of smoke into the upper atmosphere, cutting off the sun, cooling the earth and reducing precipitation. This in turn would reduce growing seasons, leading to a marked decline in corn, wheat, rice and soybean production and famine.
Full Scale Nuclear War Would Lead to Ice Age Temperatures
A “full scale” nuclear war involving just one-third of all U.S. and Russian nuclear warheads (the “launch ready” weapons) would result in hundred of millions of human casualties. But the most devastating and long- term effects would be climate disruption lasting more than ten years. The drop in temperatures around the world would be similar to those we experienced during the last major ice age. Agriculture would collapse. The stratospheric ozone layer would be depleted, leading to an increase in deadly ultraviolet radiation exposure. Not just humans, but radiosensitive organisms including other mammals as well as birds and plants such as pine and spruce trees would be at risk. The world would be contaminated with radioactive isotopes, including highly carcinogenic plutonium 239 which has a half-life of 24,400 years.